Py Win Rankings - Week 17

One last week of numbers before the end of the season, and it's looking to me like this year is going to stand out on both ends of the spectrum.  It looks like a virtual certainty that Edmonton will finish as the second unluckiest team of all time, and now it's looking like Calgary will be the luckiest 14 or 15 win team in history as well.  Other teams have finished further above their Py Expectation, but only Baltimore in 1995 has finished with 15 wins and been more than 2 wins above expectation.  It's far from empirical in the least, but it's worth nothing that Baltimore won the Grey Cup that year.

The rankings themselves haven't changed at all, without even any interesting projection changes.  That's of course because as the season goes on, each game affects the totals by a smaller percentage than previous games, so things are mostly stable by now.  Based on the gaps between teams at this point, I don't anticipate any changes next week either, other than perhaps BC moving up a spot if they win big and Toronto loses.

Next week after we have the final numbers, I'll take a look at each team and how historically similar teams have fared in the playoffs and future seasons.

Luckiest Team: Calgary (+2.3 wins)
Unluckiest Team: Edmonton (-3.4 wins)

Biggest Jump: Toronto and BC (+0.3 projected wins)
Biggest Drop: Saskatchewan (-0.3 projected wins)

Py Win Rankings - Week 17

2 weeks left in the season (playoff time, for the fantasy football fans).

A bit of shuffling in the ranks this week, as 4 teams switch places.  Toronto and Montreal move up, BC and Hamilton move down.  My broken record repeats as Edmonton continues to be historically unlucky.

Luckiest Team: Calgary (+1.9 wins)
Unluckiest Team: Edmonton (-3.1 wins)

Biggest Jump: Montreal (+0.8 projected wins)
Biggest Drop: Hamilton (-0.7 projected wins)

 * In hindsight, my decision to call column 10 "Projected" was a poor one.  It was never a true projection, it's merely the teams' Py winning percentage extrapolated over 18 games.  It looks quite silly now that Calgary has more real wins than "projected" wins.  I'll find a better name next year, or better yet, work on a proper projection.

Py Win Rankings Week 16

Nothing to see here folks, no change at all.

Calgary stays on top, Winnipeg on the bottom.  Even the projections for the top 2 teams (which to be clear, aren't a prediction for how many wins I expect a team to finish with, they are just the result of the pythagorean formula taken over 18 games).

One thing to note here, barring some kind of miraculous turnaround, Edmonton is closing in on one of the unluckiest seasons in the past 20+ years.  Their current total of -3.0 wins vs expectation would finish in a tie for second place with Hamilton in 2008, only behind Winnipeg's -4.5 in 2010.   Eskimo fans take heart - each of those teams followed up their historically unlucky seasons with big turnarounds the next year - 9 wins and a home playoff game for the Tiger-Cats, and 10 wins and a Grey Cup appearances for the Bombers.

Luckiest Team: Calgary (+1.7 wins)
Unluckiest Team: Edmonton (-3 wins)

Biggest Jump: Winnipeg (+0.5 projected wins)
Biggest Drop: BC (-0.5 projected wins)

Py Rankings Week 15

Little late on this one, sorry to anyone who was looking for this post earlier in the week.

After many weeks of hanging around despite losses, the Riders win this week and still relinquish their hold on top spot, dropping to #2 and leaving Calgary alone at the top, while Montreal and Edmonton swap places near the bottom.

Nothing overly surprising this week; the rankings exactly match the CFL standings.

Luckiest Team: Calgary (+1.5 wins)
Unluckiest Team: Edmonton (-2.6 wins)

Biggest Jump: Montreal (+0.9 projected wins)
Biggest Drop: Edmonton (-0.6 projected wins)